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Indexable Face Shell
Money Observer - Investing with Mr Predictable by Joshua Bennett
Terry Smith is not interested in the 'next big thing'. In the wide, wide world of stocks and shares the range of companies that do interest him can be narrowed down to just 60. The manager of the Fundsmith Equity fund, which launched last November, has found some soul mates in this respect, because in just six months he has attracted more than £85 million of other people's money, to complement the £25 million stake that he himself has committed to his quest to find big, old, predictable and dependable companies to invest in and that a lot of other fund managers find boring.
Smith invests with Warren Buffett-like principles in mind and the key, he says, to his fund's success will be to pick around 30 shares from that list of 60, then forget about them. More active fund managers would quibble that such an approach hardly justifies the 1 per cent annual management charge on the fund - higher than most globally oriented investment trusts, but at least 50 basis points lower than the average actively managed global equity fund.
This is where Smith says other fund managers are deluding themselves in justifying the extra charges. He contends that most other fund managers 'buy any old rubbish'. Part of the reason is they are wedded to their benchmarks, such as the FTSE100 index, and these benchmarks do indeed include big companies that are not particularly good from an investment perspective. Think BaltimoreTechnologies, a FTSE 100 member in the crazy dotcom days which is now just a cash shell.
The sorts of companies that most interest Smith are indeed very old. None of us can remember whether 1887 was a very good year for anything in particular but for Smith it's an important marker: the average company in the portfolio was founded way back then.
Consumer struggles
And most of these companies are consumer-focused. But isn't the consumer somewhat under pressure these days, weighed down by debt, falling house prices and austerity? And doesn't that mean the consumer products industry faces more of a struggle in the immediate future?
'Absolutely, you'd be mad not to think that,' agrees Smith. 'The outlook is considerably less rosy than in the past few decades of high consumption growth fuelled by debt. But worse doesn't mean bad. What does it say for the rest of industry? Everything is to do with the consumer in the end, it's just further down the chain.'
Many of the companies in the fund are involved in consumer staples that don't rely on discretionary spending: companies such as Unilever and Procter & Gamble - the number one consumer products company in the world with 'fantastic' brands such as Gillette and Pampers. 'In consumer brands, like much else in life really, if you're number one you should make a lot of money, if you're number two you should make good money, number three makes a bit of money. If you're number four or five don't bother turning up - no one's going to put you on the shelf.'
P&G itself sports the kind of fundamental attractions that Smith is most interested in: a 40 per cent average return on operating capital over 10 years, and more than 30 years of consecutive dividend increases.
But the main measure of value that Smith uses is free cashflow (FCF). When measured against a company's market capitalisation the FCF yield tells him whether its shares are cheap or expensive. It also tells him what's available to pay dividends or buy other companies, and the reason established firms are prevalent in his portfolio is because he wants to measure how FCF has grown over a full business cycle.
'I compare FCF yield with others in the sector and in the portfolio. I also compare it with the long bond yield. We're trying to buy companies which are bond-like -they are predictable, but with a difference, because they grow.'
The dividend yield on the fund is currently around 2.7 per cent, and the average dividend cover from companies in the fund is 2.5 times. 'We want them to use that extra capital to invest in their business,' says Smith, who provides a telling example of how he analyses the numbers. 'Take two companies: one has an average return on capital of 25 per cent and another 40 per cent after 20 years.
You want the 40 percenter right? Wrong. One is WD40 - but WD40 can't invest more money in its business - but it does make great returns from that one aerosol can of oil. So it's like a high-yield bond.'
Predictable, repeatable earnings are clearly foremost in Smith's mind as is debt. Operational gearing sets off alarm bells in his investor's head. 'While most of the companies we hold do have some form of leverage, we don't own companies that must have leverage to make a good return.'
Take commercial property - 'you can't make an adequate return without leverage' - and it's the same for private equity.
He cites the views of Peter Peterson, joint founder of Blackstone, who admitted in a TV interview that the US private equity giant's success was mainly due to 'a long bull market and lots of leverage', Smith recalls.
The same goes for businesses that are capital-intensive in other ways: such as heavy construction, which is a hostage to the fortunes of the global economy.
However, there is one link to private equity that Smith does view in a favourable light . 'We like sectors where there is one private company that doesn't need money from stock markets. In confectionery and pet food it's Mars, which bought Wrigley for $27 billion (£16.3 billion) and didn't need to raise cash elsewhere to do it. In spirits it's Bacardi. These are big private companies that keep growing organically.'
And there are plenty more examples. In fastfood restaurants investors think of leaders such as McDonalds and Yum! Brands, which owns KFC and Pizza Hut. 'But the biggest franchise operator in the world is Subway, owned by Doctor's Associates. Similarly, you've heard of Reckitt Benckiser, Unilever and Procter & Gamble. But have you heard of SC Johnson, a family firm for five generations? It makes Glade air fresheners, zip-lock bags and Raid.'
Driven to distraction
Clearly if these companies are so good surely everyone should own them? Smith wholeheartedly agrees, but, he says, investors have become distracted over the past decade. Think dotcom boom, the commodities supercycle, the credit bubble and subsequent bust. 'Small-ticket consumer companies were highly rated in the 1980s but they have been out of favour for a while. In ratings terms they have probably halved and they are cheaper than they were then.'
Another reason is these plain vanilla, boring and predictable companies were last popular in the pension funds of babyboomers. As this age group retires they are now divesting their equity shareholdings.
'We can buy them on an average free cashflow yield of about 7 per cent,' Smith reckons, and the kicker is that he is convinced that the 10-year government bond yield should be about 6 to 7 per cent. 'So we are buying them at a massive discount to the current long bond yield of about 3.5 per cent. As these companies are growing it's probably a reasonable bargain'.
Smith seems confident that the market will one day come back to the sorts of companies in the Fundsmith Equity portfolio. 'But it's probably more of a problem than an opportunity for us because we'd need to find something else to buy,' he grumbles.
Spotlight on Colgate-Palmolive
For Terry Smith, Colgate-Palmolive (CLG.L) epitomises the type of high-quality business in which Fundsmith Equity likes to buy shares:
· It sells Low-cost, non-durable consumer items such as toothpaste:
'things you have very littte choice but to replace when they run out'
· It sustains high operating returns on capital
· It is resilient having been founded by William Colgate as a starch,
soap and candle business in New York Cfty in 1806
· It possesses intangible assets that are difficult to replicate in the form of its well known brands
· It has a very strong balance sheet
· It has a strong track record of growth and good growth potential in
both its developed and emerging market businesses
· It is attractively valued.
Key facts about Terry Smith and Fundsmith Equity
Terry Smith, 56, was a highly rated analyst of the banking sector in the 1980s before becoming head of UK company research at UBS Phillips & Drew. He was dismissed from the role in 1992 following the publication of his book 'Accounting for Growth'. He joined stockbroker Collins Stewart soon after, becoming chief executive in 2000, when he led a successful management buyout. In 2006, following the acquisition of Tullett Liberty in 2003 and then Prebon Group, Collins Stewart and Tullett Prebon were demerged, and he remains chief executive of Tullett Prebon.
Fundsmith Equity aim:
'To run the best Stocks & Shares ISA. By best Stocks & Shares ISA we mean the one with highest return over the long term, adjusted for risk.'
Fund size: £127 million
Inception: November 2010
Further information:
www.fundsmith.co.uk
0330123 1815
About the Author
Josh spends his time investigating methods of investing his money.
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